Fantasy Football 2026 Data Deep Dive: Target Ladd McConkey and Jaylen Waddle
John Laghezza analyzed several different data points to spot trends for fantasy football ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
First off, bigtime shoutout and hearty “Welcome Back” to head honcho Matthew Berry on not only a glorious return home—great to see his Manifesto on the site he built—but for continually supporting these fantasy thought exercises. In an age of unimaginative A.I. slop, it’s important to recognize and support originality. Three Cheers! Now, onto the good stuff everyone came for …
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Data Deep Dive To Find Fantasy Football Trends
Let’s Talk About Alignments, Baby ... Let’s Talk About You And Me
Fantasy meta narratives often follow a similar life cycle. Media mentions create a ripple in the pond, immediately picked up by deep thinkers in the podcasting circuit, which then gets repeated on social media ad nauseam—until lastly, it finds its way into the hands of the algorithm aggregators, where all original meaning is lost.
Long story long, everyone’s talking about an influx of multi-TE sets. And it’s worth checking for ourselves to see if it’s even the case, and if so, how prevalent. Then, if it indeed proves actionable, how we can turn it into an edge in our home leagues.
Away we go …
Turns out, the move toward multi-TE deployment is actually worse than imagined. 2025 not only set a new all-time high for +2-TE usage (33.1%)—it fully broke out over 7.5% to the upside of a decade-long rectangular pattern. Sound the alarms!
Attempting to build off our previous study on suppressed scoring leaguewide, there’s a WR gap to fill when accounting for the obvious and quantifiable pressure to prioritize running backs early. I’ll admit to hating most of my teams without a single RB in the top-36.
So a lot’s been made about upward-trending usage in multiple tight end sets with good reason. Of course, this looms problematic for fantasy GMs, since the vast majority of TE snaps come at the expense of a WR. Simple math.
Trumedia’s +3-WR database goes back to only 2020, but the above chart is absolutely screaming confirmation of our worst fears—a corresponding leaguewide dropoff of +3-WR use of this magnitude could spell a lasting sea change.
No point in complaining—accept the shift and steer right into it. First stop? Peeling a layer off the leaguewide average down to the team level for less of a broad brushstroke. I believe we’ll find not all third WR options are created equal …
Figured I could do everyone a favor and create this +3-WR rate reference chart worth bookmarking for future research. With passing volume way down, my guess is identifying which teams’ third WR is worth targeting makes the difference in 2026.
Snap analysis says Tampa or Dallas near the top of the chart’s no surprise. Conversely, who among us can say they honestly knew off-hand the lowly Texans led the entire NFL in 3-WR sets? Surely not I!
Regardless, that’s not stopping me from running real quick to my fantasy football rankings to bump Jaylin Noel up a round, especially after posting the same exact yards/route run as Jayden Higgins (1.54), who’s coming off draft boards roughly 80 picks earlier.
Sure, the Ravens may pull up the caboose in +3-WR sets by a country mile, but I’m pumping the brakes on expecting an exact replica for 2026. Not only did they move on from playmaking TE Isaiah Likely, but 30-year-old uberkind OC Declan Doyleis now at the purple switches. Fresh off a very successful season coordinating Ben Johnson’s offense in Chicago, smart money’s on Baltimore getting much closer to the 58% league average going forward.
With some nuance added to the “who” side of the equation, it was time for a bit of “when.” Just because teams line up in 11-personnel, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s to exclusively set up a pass. Sounds intuitive, but it’s imperative to cross-check raw totals before pushing NFL team-level data at a percentage level.
Huge disparities in play volume can skew results, but no such outlier here—an extremely strong r=0.94 correlation exists between +3-WR plays and attempts. Easy game, right?
For fantasy purposes, combining utilization rate and pass frequency into one chart will spread things out for extra perspective—this second view at the same data below provides a cleaner look at precisely which teams we’re targeting.
Marking parameters at over 65% +3-WR deployment and a 68% throw rate leaves just five teams in the most attractive bin: CIN, DEN, LAC, NO, TEN.
Cincinnati Bengals: Hard to argue Andrei Iosivas isn’t worth a look in the last round wherever he’s buried in ADP. Nevertheless, it’s actually Mike Gesicki I’m mad at myself for basically ignoring thus far. Always more a “big slot” than traditional in-line TE, Gesicki barely ran fewer slot routes/game than Iosivas—yet still outproduced him in regard to targets, catches, and yards per game in that role.
Denver Broncos: Not sure it helps me solve the mile-high mystery of just who the Broncos’ third WR will be — it does eliminate any doubt surrounding whether or not Jaylen Waddle’s current ADP of 50 is a massive steal. (whispers) It is.
Los Angeles Chargers: Just when I thought it impossible to get any more bullish on the Chargers, this has me doubling down on Ladd McConkey in the late third round. Sure, Mike McDaniel’s new in town, but I highly doubt it affects LA’s 11-personnel—he posted +49% use and +78% throw rates across his first two seasons in Miami (back when he had talent).
Similarly time to boost WR73 Tre Harris’ playing time projections as well. High-upside, easy-cut decisions on strong offenses are perfect come pick 195.
New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore ran one of the fastest offenses in the NFL last season and didn’t find his starting QB until Halloween. He also threw the ball aggressively from a 3-WR heavy scheme the entire time.
So why does Devaughn Vele go vastly undrafted when he played a featured role for a month straight after Brandin Cooks was traded? Between Weeks 12-15, Vele posted a 20.5% target/route and 1.88 yards/route on a +80% route participation rate before getting injured. Not too shabby. Familiar to the in-house scheme, Vele could be the Saint’s WR2 ahead of rookie Jordyn Tyson for the first month—stranger things have happened.
Tennessee Titans: Just when you thought our chance had passed, I went and saved the worst for last. Swear it’s not the exhaustion when my hands wind up waving wildly in the air analyzing the Titans. Of course, Cam Ward could take a step forward, having added a true WR1 into the fold, but how much improvement will it take from the worst EPA/dropback in the league from a non-Cleveland QB? I’m still trying to figure out if Ward can elevate a single wideout in Carnell Tate (I think he can), let alone a third option (no chance). To me, that’s a bridge too far.
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